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"This decline in oil prices has been a shock to Canadian incomes, which
from a debt to disposable income point of view is not good news," senior
deputy governor Carolyn Wilkins told a press conference. "Certainly the
interest rate movement we made today is designed to offset part of that."
???delicate balancing act
Real estate signs in Calgary, Alta., Thursday, June 26, 2014. Calgary`s real
estate market in particular is fuelled by the price of energy, which means
slumping oil prices could pinch sellers.
A cut to the central bank`s overnight lending rate will make it cheaper for
the roughly 30 per cent of home buyers with short term or variable rate
mortgages, said Bank of Nova Scotia economist Derek Holt.
"At the end of the day, if you`re a consumer or a homeowner and you see
what essentially now amounts to zero or slightly negative real interest rates,
you`re going to go out and borrow, probably no matter how much the bank is
telling you not to," said Bank of Montreal senior economist Robert Kavcic.
Canadians who headed west in search of employment are returning east, making
job markets more competitive in other provinces and contributing to a rise in
unemployment and a drop in incomes.
A rate cut will be "unambiguously good" for the Canadian housing
market, particularly outside Alberta, said Toronto Dominion Bank economist Diana
Petramala. Consumers seemed to echo that sentiment yesterday, with real estate
brokerage Zoocasa reporting that traffic to its online listings website jumped
20 per cent after the bank`s announcement.
"If housing prices rise too much in the short term, eventually they might
need to correct more," said Royal Bank of Canada senior economist Robert
Hoult. "If lower interest rates in the near term cause home prices to
increase more, I think it does raise some risk for down the road."
Ms. Petramala expects mortgage rates to follow, with banks possibly reviving
teaser rates below 3 per cent and said yesterday`s rate cut has raised the
likelihood the central bank could cut rates even further down the road. Five
year Government of Canada bond yields touched 0.8 per cent yesterday, down from
1.4 per cent at the start of the month.
Several analysts, however, warned that while the rate cut may give a short
term boost to home buyers, it also heightens the risk of a more severe housing
correction when interest rates eventually rise.
An interest rate cut will only mean good news for Vancouver`s housing market,
said Hareesh Sara, president of Intergulf Development Group, which has several
housing and condo developments under way in both British Columbia and Alberta.
Yet by slashing interest rates after years of warning about the risks that
rising house prices and skyrocketing consumer debt levels pose to the economy,
the bank also runs the risk that consumers will start turning a deaf ear to its
long standing pleas for Canadians to curb their appetite for cheap credit and
may even fuel the flames of the country`s overheated housing market.
"The record high evolution of to income] is something which matters a lot
to us because it makes the economy vulnerable to a shock," Bank of Canada
Governor Stephen Poloz said, adding the bank sees plunging oil prices as
"exactly the kind of trigger we imagine."
In its monetary policy report, the bank predicted that without an interest
rate a cut, the household debt ratio could have risen by as much as four
percentage points as plunging energy profits harm investor portfolios and the
While that will give a boost to already strong housing markets outside of
Alberta, particularly in cities like Vancouver and Toronto, it also risks
encouraging young home buyers to take on more mortgage debt than they can
afford. "It`s important for to not forget that this is not a normal
interest rate environment," she said.
For The Globe and MailOnly last month, Canada`s central bank renewed its
warnings about rising levels of household debt, which hovers near an all time
high of 163 per cent of disposable income, and said it believed home prices were
as much as 30 per cent overvalued. Yet, in lowering rates, the bank made it
clear it sees the effects of lower oil prices spreading far beyond the borders
of Alberta, with job losses and cuts to income potentially cascading throughout
the economy and leaving indebted households even more vulnerable.
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